O que temos, não mantemos? Dems e SNP dividem o voto da oposição. Eu tinha acabado com os Lib Dems para uma geração e, no entanto, pode ser o caso de que a eleição seja uma. O candidato local fez campanha contra o HS2 e novas leis de planejamento quando o partido nacionalmente é a favor da nova linha e mais moradia. Os oportunistas sem vergonha gritam oponentes que esquecem que o deputado Tory tardio para o patch fez a mesma coisa. Eu tenho olhado para os sucessos deles de volta a 1979. Há uma crença de que os eleitores sempre retornam aos conservadores (ou ocasionalmente trabalham) após seu breve flerte com os Lib Dems. Isso não é verdade. Os Libs e Lib Dems tiveram 20 por sucessos eleitorais desde 1979. Estou descontando a vitória de Chris Davies em Littleborough em 1995 porque o assento foi abolido em 1997. dos 19 restantes, os Lib Dems mantiveram sete e perderam uma dúzia nas eleições gerais subsequentes. Portanto, há alguma esperança para Sarah Green, o novo deputado.
I am constantly told that my plea for a pact between progressive parties to defeat the Tories at the next election is unrealistic, tramples on tribal traditions, patronises the voters and won’t work.
I then retreat from the debate and contemplate decades of Conservative rule whilst Labour, the Greens, Lib Dems, and SNP divide the opposition vote.
Then last Thursday came the dramatic result in Chesham and Amersham. I had written off the Lib Dems for a generation and it yet might be the case that the by election is a one off. Their local candidate campaigned against HS2 and new planning laws when the party nationally is in favour of the new line and more housing. Shameless opportunists shout Lib Dem opponents forgetting that the late Tory MP for the patch did the same thing.
A bigger question for the Lib Dems than their election tactics is their track record in holding their gains. I’ve been looking at their successes back to 1979. There is a belief that the voters always return to the Conservatives (or occasionally Labour) after their brief flirtation with the Lib Dems. This isn’t quite true. The Libs and Lib Dems have had 20 by election successes since 1979. I am discounting Chris Davies victory in Littleborough in 1995 because the seat was abolished in 1997.Of the remaining 19, the Lib Dems held seven and lost a dozen at subsequent General Elections. So, there is some hope for Sarah Green, the new MP.
Lições para a esquerda. A festa será mergulhada em outra rodada de brigas e suas perspectivas de vencer em 2023/24 parecendo muito improvável. Perfidy.
Next week it is quite possible that Labour will lose in Batley and Spen. The party will be plunged into another round of infighting and their prospects of winning in 2023/24 looking very unlikely.
You can be certain that when it is put to them that they have to look at (probably) informal deals to soft pedal in the south (outside London) for the Lib Dems and campaign hard in the North and university towns, we will be told of all the tales of Lib Dem perfidy.
permanece o fato de que Johnson pode ser espremido. Os conservadores não têm aliados, além do DUP, e mesmo essa possibilidade parece difícil no momento. Eles precisam vencer completamente e podem fazê -lo se os assentos da parede vermelha permanecerem firmes. Mude o sistema de votação e seja administrado por um governo onde a maioria tenha uma palavra a dizer.
But Amersham has shown the possibility that with a bit of intelligent planning the SNP remain strong in Scotland, Labour fights back a bit in the North and university towns and the Lib Dems do really well in the south of England where Johnson’s Brexit deal and style of government is not going down well.
Then we could have a centre left coalition, change the voting system, and be run by a government where the majority have a say.
Resultado ruim para a mídia. Encontrei muito pouca cobertura nos jornais, no rádio e na TV nas semanas que se aproximam da pesquisa. Faça melhor.
Nearly all political journalists completely missed the Amersham by election story. I found very little coverage in the papers, on radio and TV in the weeks running up to the poll.
On the Friday and over the weekend everyone piled in, but people want informed political coverage before they cast their vote not afterwards.
They expected a Tory win even though HS2 should have alerted them to a possible upset.
It was the Brexit surprise all over again. Do better.
