The Pandemic and Johnson
It is two long years since the Chinese city of Wuhan loomed into our consciousness as the pandemic broke out. For two years we have been able to talk of little else in relation to our family life, our businesses, our politics.
We are all so fed up with it that it is everyone’s prayer that the Omicron variant is the last. However, one has a nagging fear that it won’t be.
Let’s work on the optimistic assumption that we will be able to return to normal later this year and manage Covid-19 like the many other viruses that afflict, but don’t overwhelm humanity.
That is the fervent wish of the Prime Minister who has found it difficult to display his swashbuckling libertarian style while telling people to stay at home. It is difficult to believe that he will make so many crass mistakes this year. If the pandemic retreats, he will be thanked for the spectacular vaccination programme and resisting tight lockdown demands. People won’t forget the illegal parties in Downing Street and the hypocrisy of the people involved, but voters will have other things to concern them.
THE ECONOMY STUPID
Chief among these will be the cost of living. Inflation could be at 6% by Easter, the highest since John Major’s time. Soaring energy costs will be a huge challenge for business and domestic customers. National Insurance is due to go up 1.25% shortly with the Chancellor indicating he’s not for turning on that or in favour of removing VAT on energy bills.
It could all mean the average family £1200 worse off and that would spell trouble for any government. Let alone one lead by a man like Boris Johnson. His boosterism will seem misplaced with food banks growing and people having to choose between eating and heating.
Os negócios também estarão lutando com os efeitos completos do Brexit. O comércio já caiu com a UE e as montanhas de preenchimento de formulários aguardam aqueles que ainda são corajosos o suficiente para negociar com nossos vizinhos próximos. Que piada é o Brexit! Esse conceito agora se tornou alvo de piadas. Talvez o novo Secretário de Estado responsável pela devolução, Michael Gove, possa colocar um pouco de carne no esqueleto de Johnson. Espera -se que os governos ocupem um meio de mandato, mas até agora o desempenho das eleições locais do trabalho em oposição tem sido irregular. Starmer precisa de vitórias para assar na liderança modesta nas pesquisas de opinião que ele conseguiu tardiamente. O trabalho querer assumir o controle total de Bolton, Wirral, Burnley e West Lancashire e vencer a eleição total para a Cumbria. Espera -se que o município seja dividido em unitário nos quais os conselheiros eleitos servirão. Um começo interessante. Ele provavelmente vencerá, pois o escoamento geralmente é contra um neo fascista.
The North also awaits with less than bated breath the White Paper on Levelling Up. This concept has now become the butt of jokes. Perhaps the new Secretary of State responsible for devolution, Michael Gove, can put some flesh on Johnson’s skeleton.
LOCAL POLLS
The local elections will be more important for Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer than Boris Johnson. Governments are expected to take a beating midterm, but so far Labour’s local election performance in opposition has been patchy. Starmer needs thumping victories to bake in the modest lead in the opinion polls he has belatedly achieved.
In the North West such gains are going to be difficult to demonstrate as the party is in control of most councils after 12 years in opposition. Labour will want to take full control of Bolton, Wirral, Burnley, and West Lancashire and win the all-out election for Cumbria. The county is then expected to be split into unitaries on which the elected councillors will serve.
Liverpool will have no elections this year pending a full shake up of voting arrangements next year.
THE WORLD
President Macron has begun his election year in France by saying he wants to p… off people who aren’t vaccinated. An interesting start. He’ll probably win as the runoff is usually against a neo fascist.
Estou preocupado com as questões usuais em torno das intenções russo e chinês, mas mais ainda pelos Estados Unidos. É bem possível que as vitórias republicanas nas eleições de médio prazo em novembro deixem Biden como um pato coxo. Mais importante, os republicanos que entram no Congresso serão todos os apoiadores de Trump ainda negando o resultado de 2020. Feliz Ano Novo!
