What the business community most craves at the start of any year is a degree of certainty about how the economy is going to perform and what challenges they are likely to face in the forthcoming months.
The fact is that in 2019 we enter unchartered territory around a whole set of issues that means the ability to predict what the economic environment will look like going forward makes our lives ever more difficult.
The global picture offers little more comfort than the Brexit-ridden situation we are embroiled in here in the UK.
Donald Trump’s trade war with China is causing consternation from the tech sector and Apple through to car manufacturing and Jaguar Land Rover. If you think that the rate of export tariffs and not knowing your WTOs from your LBWs doesn’t much matter, tell that to the 5,000 employees of Jaguar who face redundancy this year.
The presidents’ game-playing with his Democrat opposition in the Senate has already led to the shut down of government in America and has impacted on Wall Street, stocks and currency valuations too.
Further, Trumps departure from what has been an aligned foreign policy approach with NATO allies has European Union member states questioning whether they need to adopt a more robust, isolationist approach to their own economic and security policies and has re-ignited talk of a European Army – more likely now given that the UK will not be able to veto such a proposition should Brexit happen.
At home, of course, the ‘B’ word continues to dominate every waking moment of our government’s time.
In a shambolic tale of misrepresentation, mismanagement and missed opportunity the latest Brexit nuggets include the awarding of £75m worth of contracts to some of the worlds biggest consultancy firms to supply the cabinet with advice on EU exit; a £15m contract to run ferries given to a company that doesn’t have any ships; and government defeats in the commons more regular than a Northern Rail train service.
What happens next in this Fred Carno’s circus abomination is anyone’s guess. Therein lies the problem. Business doesn’t know what is going to happen – and the uncertainty is killing confidence, investment and growth.
I said mid-way through 2018 that we were sleepwalking towards crashing out of the EU with no deal. Only now have some MPs woken from their slumber and have started guerilla warfare with ministers that may or may not avoid that awful outcome.
The only worse option I have seen to a no deal Brexit is the prime ministers’ proposal, which would leave us in a kind of no-mans-land purgatory for a significant amount of time with many of the challenges and uncertainties that have paralysed the government for the past three years remaining.
Enquanto tudo isso está sendo reproduzido nos corredores de poder, as empresas tentam planejar. É difícil, mas aqueles que são resilientes, empreendedores e comprometidos continuarão a ter sucesso no que as travessuras de nossos mestres políticos. No entanto, nós, como empresas, podemos e devemos começar a flexionar nossos músculos de maneira mais agressiva com os tomadores de decisão em todos os níveis do governo para garantir que, no entanto, o Brexit conclua que pressionamos muito por uma agenda muito mais favorável, simpática e focada para os negócios.
There may be little we can do at this stage to influence what the eventual outcome of the Brexit debacle will be. However, we as businesses can and must start to flex our muscles more aggressively with decision-makers at all levels of government to ensure that however Brexit concludes we lobby hard for a much more supportive, sympathetic and focused agenda for business.
A falta de cuidado para empreendedores, riqueza e criadores de empregos no Reino Unido foi escandaloso durante o ano passado e muito mais. Um governo conservador preside os processos de negócios mais burocráticos que experimentamos. Os impostos e os custos de negócios passaram pelo telhado desde 2010. Embora não seja realista que todos esperassem acordos de namorados com o HMRC sobre nossas contribuições fiscais, como a que a Starbucks pode negociar, seria bom que não seja de um dia a uma abordagem de um pouco de um dia a uma abordagem de um dia a um dia. E conectividade- tanto em transporte quanto digitalmente- está matando nossa produtividade. E, como outra recessão é assumida, Brexit ou nenhum Brexit, os bancos já começaram a demonstrar o mesmo tipo de abordagem que levou muitas boas empresas a aparecer desnecessariamente durante o último acidente. Fato que o centro dos negócios liderará essa cobrança este ano. Em 2019, a representação forte, independente e robusta é necessária mais do que nunca. É o que fazemos de melhor.
In our region’s, poor infrastructure and connectivity – both transport-wise and digitally- is killing our productivity. And, as another recession is assumed, Brexit or no Brexit, the banks have already started to demonstrate the same type of approach that led many good businesses to go pop unnecessarily during the last crash.
It is time for the business community and business organisations to start to demand more from our decision-makers – and focus on supporting those of us who will be left to deal with their deal!
You can bet your mortgage on the fact that Downtown in Business will be leading that charge this year. In 2019, strong, independent, robust representation is needed more than ever. Its what we do best.
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