[vc_row type = ”in_container” Full_Screen_row_Position = "Middle" cenário_position = "Center" text_color = "Dark" text_align = "esquerda" Sobreagem_strength = "0.3 ″ Shape_Divider_Position =" Bottom "] [VC_Column column_padding_position = "all" background_color_opacity = "1 ″ background_hover_color_opacity =" 1 ″ column_shadow = "none" column_border_radius = "into" width = "2/3 ″ tablet_text_alignment =" default "/telefone_tht_tht_tht =" 2/3 ″ Tablet_text_alignment = "default"/telefone_tht_tht_Text = "2/3 ″ Tablet_text_alignment =" default "/telefon_tx_Text =" 2/3 ″ tablet_text_alignment = "default". column_border_style = "sólido"] [vc_column_text] Não é de surpreender que o Partido Conservador tenha um aumento no apoio de acordo com pesquisas divulgadas no fim de semana passado, após a eleição de um novo líder e primeiro ministro. Até as pesquisas mais otimistas não dão apoio ao governo suficiente para sugerir que eles desfruem de uma maioria geral se uma eleição geral fosse realizada amanhã. O fato é que ele pode não obter a escolha. Sua abordagem extremamente otimista de um Brexit de 'No Negal' provavelmente levará a uma votação de não-confiança que está sendo apresentada no Commons no próximo mês-e acho que o governo o perderá. Eles, razoavelmente, acreditarão que a campanha conservadora será um milhão de vezes melhor do que o que teve que suportar durante a desastrosa 'eleição do snap' de Theresa May em 2017. Eles estão cientes de que qualquer brilho que Jeremy Corbyn teve há dois anos há dois anos. A posição do Labour sobre o que será uma questão-chave de qualquer campanha, Brexit, é, para colocar isso gentilmente, em todo o lugar. Um UKIP simbólico foi substituído por uma festa do Brexit rejuvenescido de Farage. Os democratas liberais, com um novo líder e uma oferta alternativa credível sobre o futuro do país na UE, terão um desempenho muito melhor. Não estou convencido. Se houver uma eleição do outono, as associações conservadoras acharão extremamente difícil abandonar os conservadores 'permanecem'. Isso permitirá que o partido do Brexit crie dúvidas suficientes nas mentes ultra-brexitas para emprestar seu voto. Jo Swanson estará antecipando o maior número possível de assentos dos conservadores do trabalho de parto. Nenhum dos dois principais partidos tem a confiança do público britânico para governar sozinho.
However, the so-called ‘Boris Bounce’ was not as big as the Tories would have hoped. Even the most optimistic of polls fail to give the government enough support to suggest they would enjoy an overall majority if a General Election were held tomorrow.
It is for this reason that many are predicting that the new PM will resist calls to go to the country. The fact is though, he may not get the choice.
Although Johnson enjoyed a comfortable victory in a leadership contest with a ‘selectorate’ of Tory Party members, many of his parliamentary colleagues are not as enamored. His extremely bullish approach to a ‘No Deal’ Brexit will likely lead to a no-confidence vote being tabled in the commons next month – and I think the government will lose it.
For many Boris-supporting Conservatives this sounds like panacea. They will, reasonably, believe that the Tory campaign will be a million times better than that they had to endure during Theresa May’s disastrous ‘snap election’ gamble in 2017. They are acutely aware that any gloss that Jeremy Corbyn had two years ago has significantly dulled. Labour’s position on what will be a key issue of any campaign, Brexit, is, to put it kindly, all over the place.
What they appear to be failing to factor in though is that the next contest will not be the straight two-party fight it turned into two years ago. A shambolic UKIP has been replaced by a Farage rejuvenated Brexit Party. The Liberal Democrats, with a fresh new leader and a credible alternative offer over the country’s future in the EU, will perform far better.
Again, Johnson supporters will point to the more aggressive approach to Brexit as the way to spike the Farage guns. I’m not convinced. If there is an Autumn election Conservative Associations will find it extremely difficult to ditch ‘Remain’ Tories. That will allow the Brexit Party to create enough doubt in ultra-Brexiteers minds to lend it their vote.
Likewise, in constituencies where they are competing with the Liberal Democrats, the government’s hardline Brexit stance is going down like a cup of cold sick. Jo Swanson will be anticipating gaining as many seats from the Tories as she could from Labour.
In a nutshell, an awful lot has changed since the last election, but an awful lot has stayed the same. Neither of the two major parties have the trust of the British public to govern alone.
Jogue mais um pouco para o SNP na Escócia, outra área onde os Lib Dems esperam melhorar seu desempenho, e os ingredientes para um parlamento suspenso são mais prevalentes do que o caso em 2017.
Positive thinking, smart soundbites and throwing money at it won’t secure a Brexit deal. It won’t secure a parliamentary majority either.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” width=”1/3″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGNsYXNzJTNEJTIydHdpdHRlci10aW1lbGluZSUyMiUyMGRhdGEtaGVpZ2h0JTNEJTIyMTAwMCUyMiUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTNFVHdlZXRzJTIwYnklMjBEb3dudG93bkZyYW5rJTNDJTJGYSUzRSUyMCUzQ3NjcmlwdCUyMGFzeW5jJTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwbGF0Zm9ybS50d2l0dGVyLmNvbSUyRndpZGdldHMuanMlMjIlMjBjaGFyc2V0JTNEJTIydXRmLTglMjIlM0UlM0MlMkZzY3JpcHQlM0UlMjA=[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][/vc_column][/vc_row]
