de Nawaz Ali, chefe de idéias da Western Union Business Solutions
Mais de quinze anos depois da epidemia da SARS, a China novamente enfrenta um surto de vírus. Desta vez, porém, está na cidade de Wuhan, dentro da província de Hubei-a chamada "potência industrial" da economia número dois do mundo. [1] No entanto, o coronavírus-ou melhor, covid-19-permanece significativamente menos fatal que o SARS, com uma taxa de mortalidade de 3,4%, de acordo com a Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS). Isso é cerca de quatro vezes menos que a taxa de mortalidade de 9,6% no SARS. Essa perspectiva de maior escalada e pensamentos de 'e se' é o que agora está impulsionando o medo nos mercados financeiros e forçando os economistas a reavaliar rapidamente as implicações potenciais para as empresas em 2020.
Wuhan’s connection to the rest of the world, and the rate at which this virus spreads, means that as many as 4,015 lives worldwide (as of March 10th) have been lost, dwarfing the 774 deaths attributed to SARS in 2003. [1] However, coronavirus – or rather COVID-19 – remains significantly less fatal than SARS was, with a mortality rate of 3.4% according to the World Health Organisation (WHO). That’s about four times less than the 9.6% mortality rate under SARS.
With COVID-19 now impacting 110 different countries, what if this escalates further, and WHO updates its global health emergency rating to a ‘global pandemic’? This prospect of further escalation, and thoughts of ‘what if’ is what’s now driving fear across financial markets and forcing economists to quickly reassess potential implications for businesses in 2020.
