À medida que a poeira se apaixona na recente rodada das eleições locais do Reino Unido, todos os olhos estão se voltando para as eleições gerais ainda este ano. aquecer também. Empresas dos EUA que negociam no Reino Unido, empreiteiros de defesa, empresas de infraestrutura e energia, empresas de mídia e tecnologia e investidores biológicos desejam entender o que qualquer regime regulatório futuro pode ser e está procurando insights sobre o cenário político, como a campanha de startiation, e, com o curso, o stark contraste. é que ambos são efetivamente corridas de dois cavalos. E como nenhum do sistema incentiva a cooperação multipartidária, é improvável que veja personagens marginais desempenhando um papel crítico. De fato, no caso dos libdems, após sua desastrosa coalizão de 2010 com os conservadores, os hemorragia votos e apoio a uma geração, eles podem ser bem aconselhados a ficar longe de qualquer acordo de confiança ou de seus pactos eleitorais para o futuro previsível. Meus clientes americanos e colegas desejam entender mais sobre o que são a escolha binária que o eleitorado da Grã -Bretanha enfrenta. Eles são de cabeça fria e talvez os pesquisadores finais. Hoje, atualmente você pode ter em 12/1 para uma vitória conservadora, enquanto as chances de vencer o trabalho são tão pequenas quanto 1/33. Os libdems são um 500/1 LongShot.
Hopping on and off Zoom calls and Teams meetings with the US, I am aware their focus is obviously on the Trump/Biden battle in November, but interest in Westminster’s potential outcome is starting to warm up too. US businesses who trade in the UK, defence contractors, infrastructure and energy companies, media and technology firms, and bio tech investors are all keen to understand what any future regulatory regime may be and are looking for insights into the political landscape, any similarities with the US campaign, and of course the stark contrasts.
While the systems – a Presidential Republic and a Constitutional Monarchy – are wildly different, the most obvious similarity is they are both effectively two-horse races.
While RFK Jr. is running for US President, and in the UK third parties like the Liberal Democrats do exist, nobody sees them forming the next Government. And as neither system encourages multi-party cooperation, it is unlikely to see fringe characters playing a critical role. In fact, in the case of the LibDems after their disastrous 2010 coalition with the Tories saw them haemorrhage votes and support for a generation, they may be well advised to stay away from any confidence deals or electoral pacts for the foreseeable future.
With about 5 months to go until the anticipated election, both Labour and The Conservatives are starting to road test their pitches to the public. My American clients and colleagues are keen to understand more about what the binary choice facing Britain’s electorate are.
To set context, I always share the views of the bookmakers. They are cold-headed and perhaps the ultimate pollsters. Today, you can currently snag 12/1 for a Conservative win, while the chances of Labour winning are as slim as 1/33. The LibDems are a 500/1 longshot.
Claramente os conservadores têm tudo a fazer. Tão desesperado é a situação deles que há rumores que eles podem abandonar o primeiro -ministro nas próximas semanas para tentar obter algum tipo de salto. Mas sem sucessor óbvio capaz de unir todas as várias facções do Partido Tory moderno, Sunak provavelmente ainda estará lá. Os estrategistas conservadores também esperam alguns impactos externos - um longo verão quente, um euro de sucesso 24 bem -sucedido para a Inglaterra, e talvez uma indiscrição ou passo em falso por figuras de trabalho sênior. Ao arrastar a eleição para o final de 2024, Sunak também deixa espaço para o Banco da Inglaterra reduzir as taxas de juros, iluminando a carga em hipotecas e dívidas domésticas. Ele já cortou o seguro nacional e espero que os britânicos comecem a ver isso em seus pacotes salariais, mas tem espaço para mais um orçamento de outono e um grande doamento sobre cortes de impostos, imposto sobre o carimbo ou o imposto sobre herança pode estar em queda.
So, what might a Tory campaign look like they ask?
I imagine it will be light on policies and aggressively aimed at reducing trust and confidence in any incoming Labour administration. Tory strategists will be hoping for some external impacts too – a long hot Summer, a successful Euro 24 for England, and perhaps an indiscretion or misstep by senior Labour figures. By dragging the election into late 2024, Sunak also leaves space for the Bank of England to cut interest rates, lightening the load on mortgages and household debt.
Sunak is instinctively a ‘small government, tax cutting’ Tory – popular ideas with the rump of the Tory Party but at odds with much current thinking in progressive and growing economies. He has already cut national insurance and will hope Britons start to see that in their pay packets, but he has room for one more Autumn Budget and a big give away on tax cuts, stamp duty, or inheritance tax may be in the offing.
While the economy is always the issue which decides elections, immigration is also high on the agenda and Sunak will be hoping to see a Rwanda flight take off before polling day too.
Trabalho, por outro lado, sugiro, terá que ser mais considerado em sua campanha. Como as chances das casas de apostas demonstram, é deles a perder. Groches. Ministro. O homem pode ser o que a nação está procurando atualmente. 'Securonomics' para descrever sua abordagem política. Ao contrário de Sunak, o trabalho parece ainda acredita em um estado ativo, não apenas como o fornecedor de serviços públicos de último recurso, mas como um jogador na formação e no fornecimento de crescimento econômico. She has already started to lay out plans for a National Wealth Fund to deliver private and public investment in critical infrastructure, talked up planning reform to build 1.5million new homes and boost the construction sector, and the creation of GB Energy to better serve households and to drive a move to renewables.
Party bosses will be acutely aware of the mistakes previous Labour leaders have made to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – John Smith spelling out their tax bombshell weeks before a vote, the over confidence of Kinnock’s Sheffield rally, and Michael Foot’s ‘longest suicide note in history’ manifesto still send Labour campaign chiefs into cold shivers.
But Labour also knows that while it may be on track to win an election for the first time in nearly 20 years, to secure that success it must win voters over from the centre ground and court those swing voters who have been lending their votes to the Conservatives for a generation, largely because they didn’t trust Labour on national defence and economy issues.
In Labour’s favour now is they have a credible candidate to be Prime Minister.
Kier Starmer came to politics later in life after serving as a leading Human Rights lawyer and then as head of the Crown Prosecution Service, a compelling CV which underpins his pragmatic managerial leadership style.
While he may be a bit on the boring side, after the circus of Johnson and Truss – and his own predecessor Corbyn – Starmer as ‘Labour’s Grey Man’ may be what the nation is currently looking for.
And in Rachel Reeves as Shadow Chancellor, Labour has someone who isn’t going to rattle the markets, scare the electorate with talk of huge tax hikes, or promise to pour endless billions into the bottomless buckets of public service without the necessary reforms.
In echoes of how American politicians present their ideas, Reeves coined the term ‘Securonomics’ to describe her policy approach. Unlike Sunak, Labour it appears still believes in an active state, not just as the provider of public services of last resort, but as a player in shaping and delivering economic growth. She has already started to lay out plans for a National Wealth Fund to deliver private and public investment in critical infrastructure, talked up planning reform to build 1.5million new homes and boost the construction sector, and the creation of GB Energy to better serve households and to drive a move to renewables.
And Starmer and Reeves are also acutely aware they need to promise their core constituents – Britain’s workers and families – a brighter future too, so while the idea of a ‘new deal for working people’ has the feint whiff of class politics, it will likely just enshrine current employer best practices in law – ending ‘fire and re-hire’, banning ‘zero hour’ contracts and putting better workers rights and benefits like sick pay in place.
American politics is largely dominated by economics and national security issues, so there is much interest in how a Labour Government might approach international relations, global trade and foreign política. Enquanto Trump na Casa Branca provavelmente veria tarifas e cotas desempenharem um papel dominante na política externa americana, uma administração de líderes da Starmer teria mais chances de conseguir um premiado acordo comercial americano-americano, construído em torno de metas climáticas e com o livre comércio, se o Biden é vitorioso. Produção de chip, veículos elétricos, IA e fabricação verde. estão sendo bombardeados com listas de desejos e solicitações de política. A elaboração de políticas americanas, porque abraça a liberdade de expressão da Primeira Emenda, está aberta ao engajamento e persuasão comercial por projeto. Nos círculos trabalhistas, onde uma desconfiança histórica e desdém pelos negócios ainda não foi totalmente purgada, é ainda mais pronunciado.
Both Biden’s Democrats and Starmer’s Labour share a passion for re-industrialising their heartlands, reshoring jobs and protecting supply chains, and being leading players in global chip production, electric vehicles, AI and green manufacturing.
With elections both sides of the pond looming, and armed with new insight and intelligence, what can businesses do now I’m often asked?
In the US, big business is mobilised already.
Supported by powerful trade associations and lobby groups, with engaged trade unions and regional and city administrations, both main parties are being bombarded with wish lists and policy requests. American policy making, because it embraces the free speech of the first amendment, is open to commercial engagement and persuasion by design.
In the UK, the idea that a business making multi-billion pound investments, employing tens of thousands of workers and paying hundreds of millions in taxes would want to be heard in the corridors of power is somehow still seen as ‘dodgy’. Within Labour circles, where an historic mistrust and disdain for business still hasn’t been fully purged, it is even more pronounced.
meus clientes geralmente estão chocados com o fato de não haver uma maneira clara e transparente de seus negócios envolverem os tomadores de decisão diretamente. O interesse aumentado pela política da mídia e das principais vozes, agora é provavelmente a hora de começar a articular as políticas que as empresas do Reino Unido esperam ver do próximo governo - o que for. Downtown in Business
As the UK moves towards its election, it seems that much could be learned by UK businesses, regional lobby groups and campaigners from how their US counterparts are active in policy making discussions.
With freshly elected Regional Mayors, new local authority leaders and a heightened interest in policy from the media and key voices, now is probably the time to start articulating the policies UK businesses will hope to see from the next Government – whichever one that is.
