acabou. Trump venceu. Avance. Não há nada a ver aqui. O voto popular de quase 7 milhões e foi o vencedor em 31 dos 51 estados e distritos. O dólar se fortaleceu, os principais índices aumentaram e, com uma expectativa de impostos mais baixos e regulamentação mais leve, as empresas estão analisando mais uma vez. Governo, como e quando ele decide abordá -los é menos claro. Com suas luvas nas alavancas da maior economia do mundo, mais potentes militares e controle da moeda de reserva do mundo, Trump - ou qualquer outro presidente dos EUA - tem muitas fichas de barganha à sua disposição. Mantra.
While many readers may be left wondering how a man with such a dubious recent past could have made it to the position of Commander in Chief of the free world, the fact is he did.
And handsomely.
He captured 312 Electoral College votes, more than Biden, George Bush, Carter, Kennedy.
He won the popular vote by nearly 7 million and was the winner in 31 of the 51 states and districts.
The win is undeniably absolute, and with the Senate and likely the House of Representatives moving to the Republican cause too, the 47th President has plenty of power in his hands.
The financial markets have responded positively. The dollar has strengthened, the main indices have risen and on an expectation of lower taxes and lighter regulation, businesses are looking at investing once more.
For any incoming President these are good signs.
Now the President must deliver.
He is by his very DNA a deal maker, so while the pledges and promises he made during the campaign are expected to be his priorities in Government, how and when he decides to address them is less clear cut.
As a deal maker, he enjoys the negotiation.
To be successful in discussions and dialogue you have to have something to offer, and something to withhold. With his mitts on the levers of the world’s largest economy, most potent military and control of the world’s reserve currency, Trump – or any other US President – has plenty of bargaining chips at his disposal.
In his election night address, Trump made the statement – A Promise Made, A Promise Kept –his administration’s mantra.
Então, quais foram essas promessas e como elas provavelmente afetam a América e o resto do mundo? Um dos pilares dos eventos da campanha e da retórica, Trump alertou sobre "criminosos malignos, perigosos, inundando a fronteira". Ele se prometeu reunir o pior e devolvê-los ao lado sul do Rio Grande e de onde eles vieram. Para buscar a aprovação do Congresso. Lembrado pelos eleitores por ter presidido as taxas de juros atingindo dígitos, hipotecas triplicando e pagamentos de carros dobrando - o novo presidente pode trazer um pouco de alívio fiscal, estendendo seus próprios cortes de impostos além do prazo de 2025. Embora isso privasse o tesouro de bilhões e bilhões de renda, seria bem recebido na América convencional, onde o aperto foi mais sentido.
There were key pledges made, some more achievable than others.
First, Immigration. A mainstay of the campaign events and rhetoric, Trump warned about ‘evil, dangerous, criminals flooding the border’. He has pledged to round up the worst and return them to the south side of the Rio Grande and from where they came.
While his idea of using the military and police to deliver this would be a lot more complicated to execute, there is a long-forgotten act, initially introduced to stop weapons and resources being flogged to warring native Americans by the French, which would let him empty the prisons of undocumented criminals and deport them without having to seek Congress’ approval.
The numbers would be tiny in comparison to the millions who cross the border each year, but it would be a big political hit and a ‘get it done’ feather in his cap early on.
Next on the ‘to-do’ list is fix the economy.
With the Biden administration largely remembered by voters for having presided over interest rates hitting double figures, mortgages tripling and car payments doubling – the new President can bring a bit of fiscal relief by extending his own Tax Cuts beyond the 2025 deadline. While this would deprive the treasury of billions and billions of income it would be well received in mainstream America where the squeeze has been felt most.
e para pagar por esses cortes de impostos, se não estiver equilibrando totalmente os livros, Trump prometeu tarifas para proteger empregos e empresas americanas. Ele, talvez, em um momento de grande emoção, sugeriu que todas as importações tivessem uma tarifa de 10 a 20% e os bens e serviços da China veriam um adesivo de 60% adicionado. Mas iniciar uma guerra comercial global não parece ser algo que Donald Trump está se esquivando. Não apenas ele provavelmente começará a descompactar o DEI (diversidade, igualdade e inclusão) que as empresas estão implementando, mas ele rasgará o livro de regras para iniciativas de mudança climática. Em 2018, Trump retirou -se do Acordo de Paris sobre o clima e é provavelmente planos de energia renovável e limpa, como veículos solares, eólicos e elétricos, todos fortemente dependentes dos subsídios do governo para serem comercialmente viáveis, verão os fundos retirados. Novamente, seu palco Elon pode querer ter uma palavra sobre onde isso deixa os milhões de caminhões cibernéticos que ele planeja construir. A nuclear provavelmente também verá um renascimento contínuo encerrando o trapaceiro de usinas de energia como Ilha de três milhas. Para ter sucesso nas urnas e manter os evangélicos e os pró-vida felizes, Trump evitou a questão sobre proteções federais e, em vez disso, disse acreditar que cada estado deveria instituir suas próprias regras. Ele, no entanto, disse recentemente que não assinaria uma proibição de aborto se viesse do Congresso para sua mesa, mas não aparece
Trump’s latest best friend, billionaire Elon Musk, walked some of that back in media interviews saying he imagined the tariffs would be phased in gradually, perhaps in part because he sits on a global trading empire. But kickstarting a global trade war doesn’t seem to be something Donald Trump is shying away from.
Next up is all that pesky green and woke legislation. Not only will he likely start to unpick the DEI (diversity, equality and inclusion) measures firms have been putting in place, but he will tear up the rule book for climate change initiatives. In 2018 Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement on Climate and it is likely renewable and clean energy plans like solar, wind and electric vehicles, all heavily dependent on government subsidies to be commercially viable, will see the funds pulled. Again, his pal Elon may want to have a word about where this leaves the millions of Cyber Trucks he plans to build.
And with renewable energy slipping from the power generation mix, Trump’s call for ‘Drill Baby Drill’ will see Alaska, parts of the Arctic and protected federal lands opened to exploration and a bonanza of oil and gas rights sales. Nuclear will also likely see a continued revival ending the mothballing of power stations like Three Mile Island.
Then there is the thorny issue of Abortion and Women’s Reproductive Rights. To be successful at the ballot box and keeping evangelicals and pro-lifers happy, Trump dodged the question about federal protections and instead said he believed each state should institute its own rules. He has, however, recently said he wouldn’t sign an abortion ban into law if it came from Congress to his desk, but it doesn’t appear Roe vs Wade will be revisited, especially as it was his Supreme Court appointees who changed the rules.
Then there is foreign affairs.
Trump has said he can solve the Middle East crisis with a phone call and would stop the Ukraine War in a day. Bold claims indeed. It is unclear how Trump imagines he will corral the Iranian backed militia in Lebanon and Gaza to even take his call let alone lay down their arms, but he has in the past backed a two-state settlement and promised to support investment and infrastructure rebuilding in Palestine. He may have to persuade Bibi Netanyahu of the wisdom of his plan first.
Quando se trata da Ucrânia, há muitos desafios. A proximidade de Trump com Putin deixa um gosto azedo na boca da maioria das pessoas. Se os EUA fossem retirar seu apoio militar e financeiro à Ucrânia que deixaria o Reino Unido, a UE e outros se comprometeram a defender a Ucrânia até o fim, em um local pegajoso, tendo que investir centenas de bilhões a mais em uma guerra estrangeira que seus próprios cidadãos podem se cansar rapidamente. E como fabricante de acordos, que preço o Trump exigiria - a Ucrânia retira seu pedido para ingressar na OTAN, reivindicações territoriais na Crimeia e em outros lugares precipitados, acordos de petróleo e agricultura que prejudicam a economia local pelas próximas décadas? E que mensagem enviaria a aliados e parceiros nos Báltico, Polônia e através dos oceanos em Taiwan e Coréia do Sul, que dependem do apoio contínuo dos EUA para impedir que seus vizinhos agressivos estacionem literalmente seus tanques em seus gramados. A sentença de Trump pelos crimes que ele foi condenada aguarda. Sua escolha para empregos em ameixas no governo será revelada e a transição ordenada do poder começará. Alguns políticos muito seniores precisam comer suas palavras e começar a reconstruir as relações com a nova administração em espera. Aprenda, rapidamente, as novas regras do jogo.
Over the next two months more will be revealed. Trump’s sentencing for the crimes he was convicted awaits. His choice for plum jobs in the administration will be revealed and the orderly transition of power will begin.
The UK government, businesses and regional and national authorities can’t dismiss the election result simply because they didn’t like the outcome. Some very senior politicians need to eat their words and start rebuilding relationships with the new administration-in-waiting.
They need to embrace the new regime, they need to understand its motivations and priorities and most of all they need to engage with Trump, his proxies, the US business community and institutions and sharpen their negotiating skills now.
There are many opportunities for UK plc with the new administration, but only if they learn, quickly, the new rules of the game.
