Rishi Sunak está lutando até o fim. Apesar das feridas autoinfligidas como o dia D e a traiçoeira ganância do jogo egoísta de alguns de seus colegas, o primeiro-ministro apresentou um bom desempenho no debate final da TV na quarta-feira à noite. Se as pessoas usavam dentro do conhecimento ou acham que é apropriado apostar contra si mesmo quando os ativistas estão batendo nas calçadas em seu nome, as revelações de jogos de azar foram a mais recente confirmação de que há algo podre no coração do Partido Tory. De contratos de Partygate e Covid ao caso Pincher e Fluttergate, o partido precisa limpar seu ato em oposição. Ele também tinha o líder da oposição no backfoot sobre a imigração. O trabalho procuraria acordos com os aiatoláhs do Taliban e Iraniano para repatriar o pessoal do barco? Sir Keir muitas vezes parecia estar no pé traseiro, incapaz de combinar o desempenho ágil de Rishi Sunak. Talvez sua cautela seja explicada pelo fato de o vaso Ming estar do outro lado do salão de baile, mas o trabalho permanece preocupado com o fato de que ainda poderia ser derrotado de suas mãos. Existe uma preocupação real nas fileiras de trabalho sobre complacência em meio a pesquisas que prevêem uma grande maioria. Xadrez obtenha 3 cada. Veremos. Em outros lugares de Cheshire, houve uma raiva considerável de que a cidade de Chester foi dividida em dois. Sam Dixon, do Labour, parece bem em Chester North. Chester South e Eddisbury são mais interessantes. Presidi um Hustings lá na semana passada, onde a filha de Gyles Brandreth, Aphra fez um show impressionante contra o Labour, que espera se beneficiar de enfermarias no sul da cidade. Crewe voltará ao trabalho e a nova sede de Mid Cheshire (Northwich e Winsford) poderá acabar no canto vermelho. Tories Sara Britcliffe (Hyndburn), David Morris (Morecambe) e Andrew Stephenson em Pendle parecem propensos a ir. O vice -falante pode Nigel Evans ficar em Ribble Valley. Muitos já terem votado por postagem, mas se você gosta do lápis atarracado na estação de votação, não se esqueça do seu ID!
He could have been forgiven for concluding (like Gareth Southgate will) that enough is enough. Whether people used inside knowledge or think it is appropriate to bet against yourself when activists are pounding the pavements on your behalf, the gambling revelations was the latest confirmation that there is something rotten at the heart of the Tory Party. From Partygate and Covid contracts to the Pincher affair and Fluttergate, the party needs to clean up its act in opposition.
But despite this awful background, Rishi Sunak took the fight to Sir Keir Starmer, warning the voters not to “surrender” to the higher taxes Labour would inflict. He also had the Opposition leader on the backfoot on immigration. Would Labour seek deals with the Taliban and Iranian ayatollahs to repatriate the boat people?
The dynamic of the debate was not of a government trying to defend fourteen years of underachievement and a disastrous decision to leave the EU. Sir Keir often seemed to be on the back foot, not able to match Rishi Sunak’s nimble performance. Perhaps his caution is explained by the fact that the ming vase is across the ballroom, but Labour remains worried it could still be dashed from his hands. There is real worry in Labour ranks about complacency amid polls forecasting a huge majority.
The Tory worry remains Reform, although Farage has clearly blundered over saying the West provoked Putin over Ukraine.
An MRP poll has Labour on 465 up 265, Con 76 down 300, Lib Dems 52 up 44, SNP on twenty-nine down 19, Reform, Greens and Plaid get 3 each. We’ll see.
I end my election build up with a look at the key North West seats I didn’t cover last week starting with the only expected Lib Dem gains in the region at Cheadle and Hazel Grove. Elsewhere in Cheshire there has been considerable anger that the city of Chester has been split in two. Labour’s Sam Dixon looks well set in Chester North. Chester South and Eddisbury is more interesting. I chaired a hustings there last week where Gyles Brandreth’s daughter Aphra put up an impressive show against Labour who hope to benefit from wards in the south of the city. Crewe will revert to Labour and the new seat of Mid Cheshire (Northwich and Winsford) could end up in the red corner.
Will the Red Rose County be all red next Friday morning? Tories Sara Britcliffe (Hyndburn), David Morris (Morecambe) and Andrew Stephenson in Pendle all look likely to go. Can Deputy Speaker Nigel Evans hang on in Ribble Valley.
Merseyside will be all red if Southport falls to Labour for the first time whilst in Greater Manchester, Labour will regain those shock 2019 loses in places like Heywood and Leigh but can journalist Paul Waugh wrestle Rochdale back from the political popinjay George Galloway. Many will have voted by post already but if you love the stubby pencil in the polling station, don’t forget your ID!
