[vc_row type = ”in_container” Full_Screen_row_Position = "Middle" cenário_position = "Center" text_color = "Dark" text_align = "esquerda" Sobreagem_strength = "0.3 ″ Shape_Divider_Position =" Bottom "] [VC_Column column_padding_position = "all" background_color_opacity = "1 ″ background_hover_color_opacity =" 1 ″ column_shadow = "none" column_border_radius = "into" width = "2/3 ″ tablet_text_alignment =" default "/telefone_tht_tht_tht =" 2/3 ″ Tablet_text_alignment = "default"/telefone_tht_tht_Text = "2/3 ″ Tablet_text_alignment =" default "/telefon_tx_Text =" 2/3 ″ tablet_text_alignment = "default". column_border_style = "sólido"] [vc_column_text] Uma eleição geral de dezembro é tão bem -vinda quanto um ouriço em uma colônia nudista. No entanto, esse é o resultado de meses de disputa parlamentar sobre a questão espinhosa do Brexit. Normalmente, elegemos um governo que implementará políticas que afetarão alguns anos antes de votar novamente para dizer se gostamos ou não. Venha. Verificou -se que Johnson foi considerado o melhor emprego, que agiu ilegalmente na prorrogação do parlamento, sofreu a indignidade de seu próprio irmão renunciando ao seu gabinete, foi pego em uma fileira por causa de seu "tutor de tecnologia", com o tempo que se refere a um gente que não é uma fita de relevo. A maioria do Commons em dezembro. Rather than build on the momentum of that surprise result, Corbynistas have spent their time focusing on internal party machine politics, failed to embrace a ‘broad church’ approach to its politics, had an almighty fall out with its Jewish membership and the wider Jewish community, adopted a Brexit policy that a Philadelphia lawyer would struggle to understand and botched a host of ‘political assassinations’ from its Deputy Leader Tom Watson to London MP Margaret Hodge. No entanto, uma reviravolta surpresa nos primeiros-ministros exige uma eleição e uma recusa teimosa de apoiar um governo de unidade nacional, porque Jeremy Corbyn o teria liderado, demonstra a muitos progressistas que, quando o empurrão é empurrado, os libes ainda favoreceriam o azul.
As unpopular as the poll is, this election is hugely important to the future direction of the country. Ordinarily, we elect a government that will implement policies that will impact for a few years before we get to cast our votes again to say whether we like them or not.
On this occasion, the ‘Brexit’ election will decide if we exit the EU, whatever the consequences, and if Boris Johnson wins and embarks on driving through his deal, or eventually a no deal’ exit, then the implications will last for decades to come.
Johnson has the most unfavourable poll ratings of any prime minister so early into his tenure and he has lost more parliamentary votes in the last ten days than Tony Blair lost in ten years.
Despite this he has adopted a robust approach to go back to the country for an election – because he knows the leader of the opposition’s poll numbers are even worse.
In his short time in the top job, Johnson has misled the Queen, been found to have acted unlawfully in proroguing parliament, suffered the indignity of his own brother resigning from his cabinet, been caught up in a row over his ‘technology tutor’ during his time as London mayor and failed to deliver his ‘die in a ditch’ Halloween Brexit pledge.
Nonetheless, he is the only party leader with a realistic prospect of gaining an overall commons majority in December.
Corbyn and his supporters have, for the past two years, basked in the glory of not getting beaten as badly as Labour had anticipated at the last General Election. Rather than build on the momentum of that surprise result, Corbynistas have spent their time focusing on internal party machine politics, failed to embrace a ‘broad church’ approach to its politics, had an almighty fall out with its Jewish membership and the wider Jewish community, adopted a Brexit policy that a Philadelphia lawyer would struggle to understand and botched a host of ‘political assassinations’ from its Deputy Leader Tom Watson to London MP Margaret Hodge.
Labour’s strategy will be to hold what it’s got in the hope that smaller parties come to its rescue.
The Liberal Democrats and Jo Swinson have enjoyed a bit of a bounce since the Spring, culminating in a good performance at the European elections in June. However, a surprise U-Turn on the prime ministers call for an election and a stubborn refusal to back a caretaker government of national unity because Jeremy Corbyn would have led it, demonstrates to many progressives that, when push comes to shove, the Lib Dems still favour Blue to Red.
Embora eles façam melhor do que em 2015 e 2017 e podem até negar os conservadores da maioria que desejam, Swinson poderia pagar o preço final por sua corrida para as pesquisas perdendo seu assento para o SNP. Eu prevei que uma vitória de Cameron sobre Miliband, mas depois disse que permaneceria superar a licença e maio bater em Corbyn. No entanto, antes que uma bola seja chutada, para falar, meu instinto é que, como eu disse, apenas Johnson pode ter alguma esperança genuína de garantir uma maioria geral. Se ele depende de que tipo de campanhas os respectivos partidos nos apresentam, se a votação tática entra em jogo e, crucialmente, a participação. Estou dizendo que estamos indo para outro parlamento suspenso - mas se uma semana é muito tempo na política, cinco semanas é uma vida inteira, então eu retenho meu direito de refletir sobre isso ao longo da campanha. E eles podem. Se Johnson não entregar a maioria dos conservadores, ele estaria sob pressão para renunciar, tornando -se um dos mais curtos da PMS da história. Swinson, como eu disse, poderia perder o assento. E Corbyn, se ele não puder superar o governo de pior desempenho na memória viva, teria que se resumir como líder trabalhista e ir para o seu lote. column_padding = "no-extra-padding" column_padding_position = "all" background_color_opacity = "1 ″ background_hover_color_opacity =" 1 ″ column_shadow = "into" column_border_radius = "" width = "1/3 ″ tablet_tablet_tad_txt_txt_txt) column_border_width = "None" column_border_style = "sólido"] [vc_raw_html] jtndySuymghyzwylm0qlmjjodhrwcyuzqsuyriuyrnr3ax R0zxIUy29TJTJGRG93BNRVD25GCMFUAYUZRNJLZl9ZCMLM0R0D3NYYYUTVFGZ3JTIYJTIWY2XHC3MLM0QLMJ J0D2L0DGVYLWZVBGXVDY1IDXR0B24LMJILMJBKYXRHLXNOB3CTY291BNQLM0QLMJJMYWXZZZSUYMIUZRUZVBGXVDY Uymcu0mervd250b3durnjhbmslm0mlmkzhjtnfjtndc2nyaxb0jtiwyxn5bmmlmjbzcmmlm0qlmjjodhrwcyUzqs Uyriuyrnbsyxrmb3jtlnr3axr0zxiUy29tjtjgd2lkz2v0cy5qcyuymiuymgnoyxjzzxqlm0qlmjj1dgytocuymi UzrsUzqyuyrnnjcmlwdcuzrq == [/vc_raw_html] [vc_raw_html] jtndySUymgSyxnzjtnejtiydhdpdhrlci1 0aw1lbGluzSUymiuyMgrHDGETAGVPZ2H0JTNEJTIMYTAWMCUYMIUYMGHYZWYLM0QLMJJODHRWCYUZQSUYRIUYRNR 3axr0ZXIUY29TJTJGRG93BNRVD25GCMFUAYUZRNJLZl9ZCMLM0R0D3NYYYUTVFDGZ3JTIYJTNFVHDLZXRZJTI wynklmjbeb3dudg93bkzyyw5rjtndjtjgysUzrsuymcUzq3njcmlwdcuymgfzew5jjtiwc3jjjtnejtiyahr0chm lm0elmkylmkzwbgf0zm9ybs50d2l0dgvylmnvbsuyrndpzgdldhmuanmlmjilmjbjagfyc2v0jtnejtiydxrmltg lmjilm0ulm0mlmkzzy3jpchqlm0ulmja = [/vc_raw_html] [vc_raw_html] jtndysUymghyzwylm0qlmjjodhrw cyuzqsuyriuyrnr3axr0zxiuy29tjtjgrg93bnrvd25gcmfuayUzrnjlzl9zCmmlm0r0d3nyyuyntvfdgz3Jtiy Jtiwy2xhc3mlm0qlmjj0d2l0dgvylwzvbgxvdy1idxr0b24lmjilmjbkyxrhlxnob3cty291bnqlm0qlmjjmywxz ZSUYMIUZRUZVBGXVDYUYMCU0MERVD250B3DURNJHBMSLM0MLMKZHJTNFJTNDC2NYAXB0JTIWYXN5BMMLMJBZCMML M0qlmjjodhrwcyuzqsuyriuyrnbsyxrmb3jtlnr3axr0zxiuy29tjtjgd2lkz2v0cy5qcyuymiuymgnoyxjzzxxql M0qlmjj1dgytocUymiuzrsuzqyuyrnnjcmlwdcuzrq == [/vc_raw_html] [/vc_column] [/vc_row]
Like many who commentate on politics, I have mostly misjudged the mood of the country over the past five years. I did predict a Cameron win over Miliband, but then I said Remain would overcome Leave and May would thrash Corbyn.
I am reluctant to make a call on the 2019 election particularly given the complexity of the decisions we will be asked to consider. However, before a ball has been kicked, so-to-speak, my gut instinct is that, as I have said, only Johnson can have any genuine hope of securing an overall majority. Whether he will depends on what type of campaigns the respective parties present to us, whether tactical voting comes into play and, crucially, the turnout. I’m saying we’re heading for another hung parliament – but if a week is a long time in politics, five weeks is a lifetime, so I withhold my right to reflect on this over the course of the campaign.
The fact is though many, like me, who feel politically ‘homeless’ at the moment, hope that the lot of them lose. And they just might. If Johnson fails to deliver a Tory majority, he would be under pressure to resign, becoming one of the shortest serving PMs in history. Swinson, as I say, could lose her seat. And Corbyn, if he cannot overcome the worst performing government in living memory, would have to stand down as Labour leader and go tend to his allotment.
There may be something to cheer on Friday 13th after all![/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” column_border_radius=”none” width=”1/3″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGNsYXNzJTNEJTIydHdpdHRlci10aW1lbGluZSUyMiUyMGRhdGEtaGVpZ2h0JTNEJTIyMTAwMCUyMiUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTNFVHdlZXRzJTIwYnklMjBEb3dudG93bkZyYW5rJTNDJTJGYSUzRSUyMCUzQ3NjcmlwdCUyMGFzeW5jJTIwc3JjJTNEJTIyaHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZwbGF0Zm9ybS50d2l0dGVyLmNvbSUyRndpZGdldHMuanMlMjIlMjBjaGFyc2V0JTNEJTIydXRmLTglMjIlM0UlM0MlMkZzY3JpcHQlM0UlMjA=[/vc_raw_html][vc_raw_html]JTNDYSUyMGhyZWYlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGRG93bnRvd25GcmFuayUzRnJlZl9zcmMlM0R0d3NyYyUyNTVFdGZ3JTIyJTIwY2xhc3MlM0QlMjJ0d2l0dGVyLWZvbGxvdy1idXR0b24lMjIlMjBkYXRhLXNob3ctY291bnQlM0QlMjJmYWxzZSUyMiUzRUZvbGxvdyUyMCU0MERvd250b3duRnJhbmslM0MlMkZhJTNFJTNDc2NyaXB0JTIwYXN5bmMlMjBzcmMlM0QlMjJodHRwcyUzQSUyRiUyRnBsYXRmb3JtLnR3aXR0ZXIuY29tJTJGd2lkZ2V0cy5qcyUyMiUyMGNoYXJzZXQlM0QlMjJ1dGYtOCUyMiUzRSUzQyUyRnNjcmlwdCUzRQ==[/vc_raw_html][/vc_column][/vc_row]
